Title: Variation of water resources indices in a changing climate

Authors: Mohammad Javad Zareian; Saeid Eslamian

Addresses: Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran ' Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran

Abstract: Climate change affects on different hydrological and meteorological parameters. This study investigates the effects of climate change on temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran. 15 GCM models of Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR4) was used for prediction the effects of climate change. Three climate change pattern (ideal, medium and critical) were defined based on weighting method. Seasonal and annual changes in temperature showed that summer has the maximum and autumn has the minimum temperature increase. Decreasing the precipitation from -2.59% to -29.82% observed in all climate change patterns. Evapotranspiration changes by 6.8%-7.8% in different climate change patterns. Also, the surface runoff decreased for ideal, medium and critical patterns. Ratio of evapotranspiration in the East of the basin to precipitation in the West part was considered as an indicator of agricultural water balance (EPR). The amount of EPR index of ideal, medium and critical patterns respectively obtained as 26, 43 and 52% in the A2 emission scenario and 13, 25 and 36% in the B1 emission scenario. The results showed that, in this region, water resources management is essential due to the lack of water resources in the future.

Keywords: Zayandeh-Rud river basin; climate change; water resources management; GCM models; water management; variation; water resource indices; hydrology; temperature changes; precipitation changes; evapotranspiration changes; runoff changes; rainfall changes; Iran; agricultural water balance; agriculture.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2016.075574

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2016 Vol.6 No.2, pp.173 - 187

Received: 30 Jun 2015
Accepted: 19 Aug 2015
Published online: 28 Mar 2016 *

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