Title: Dynamic response forecasting and optimising paths of energy efficiency

Authors: Xiaoling Wang; Chunyou Wu; Jatin Nathwani

Addresses: Faculty of Management and Economics, Dalian University of Technology, Linggong Rd. 2, 116024 Dalian, China ' Faculty of Management and Economics, Dalian University of Technology, Linggong Rd. 2, 116024 Dalian, China ' Waterloo Institute for Sustainable Energy, University of Waterloo, 200 Uni. W., N2L 3G1 Waterloo, Canada

Abstract: Enhancing energy efficiency is a major concern of product design as well as policy responses to augment resource supply and environmental carrying capacity simultaneously. Based on empirical data from China, total factor energy efficiency is evaluated using a nonparametric linear algorithm called data envelopment analysis (DEA), followed by efficiency determinants identification. Dynamic inter-responses of energy efficiency and the determinants are forecast, simulated, and analysed with the help of the panel vector auto-regression (PVAR) and the Monte Carlo simulation technique. The findings indicate that positive effect of energy efficiency is strong initially but unsustainable over time; administrative interventions and the existing energy mix pose significant barriers to efficiency improvement; and enhancement of openness can facilitate an energy-efficient scenario by stimulating technological progress. Specific optimising paths for China's efficiency optimisation are then suggested according to the simulation outcomes.

Keywords: energy efficiency; data envelopment analysis; DEA; path optimisation; panel vector auto-regression; PVAR; Monte Carlo simulation; dynamic response forecasting; administrative intervention; energy mix; openness; technological progress; China.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCSE.2016.074585

International Journal of Computational Science and Engineering, 2016 Vol.12 No.1, pp.86 - 93

Received: 31 Jul 2015
Accepted: 06 Sep 2015
Published online: 06 Feb 2016 *

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