Author: Alfred Nordmann
Address: Institut für Philosophie, Technische Universität Darmstadt, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany
Abstract: The paper offers a general conceptual analysis of 'plausibility' that illustrates the difficulties of assigning meaning and of operationalising the term in respect to any given real or imagined world. It goes on to show how the problem is compounded for 'plausibility²' or 'plausibility squared', that is, for judgments of what is plausible in an imagined world that is more or less plausibly assumed to be the successor to a given world - as would be the case for any scenario of the future. In conclusion, some implications for innovation studies and technology assessment will be suggested.
Keywords: plausibility; technology assessment; anticipation; futures; scenario methods; foresight; innovation studies.
Int. J. of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2013 Vol.9, No.2/3/4, pp.125 - 132
Date of acceptance: 25 Sep 2013
Available online: 10 Jan 2014