Title: S-Curve dynamics of trade between Egypt and her two largest partners

Authors: Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee; Amr Sadek Hosny

Addresses: The Center for Research on International Economics and Department of Economics, The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA ' The Center for Research on International Economics and Department of Economics, The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA

Abstract: The 'S-Curve' phenomenon postulates that while cross correlation coefficients between past values of the trade balance and current exchange rate could be negative, the same cross-correlation between future values of the trade balance and current exchange rate could be positive. In this study, we test the S-Curve using bilateral trade data between Egypt and its two largest trading partners. We test the phenomenon for 36 industries (59 industries) that trade between Egypt and USA (Egypt and EU). Out of a total of 95 industries, we were able to support the S-Curve hypothesis in 20, mostly small, industries.

Keywords: S-curve dynamics; Egypt; USA; United States; European Union; EU; commodity trade; trade balance; exchange rate; bilateral trade; past values; cross-correlation; future values.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2012.048530

International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 2012 Vol.5 No.2, pp.142 - 152

Received: 06 Aug 2011
Accepted: 14 Nov 2011
Published online: 31 Dec 2014 *

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