Int. J. of Technology Intelligence and Planning   »   2011 Vol.7, No.1



Title: Long range trends in the automobile industry output: depensation effects in the logistic modelling


Author: Luiz C.M. Miranda, Carlos A.S. Lima


Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil.
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil


Abstract: Automobile industry productivity has profited from incorporating Technology Intelligence (TI) methods as customers became concerned with the technological innovation contents and environmental safety of automobiles. Time series for automobile fleets accretion were analysed using a modified logistic model we recently proposed, consisting in splitting the logistic equation into a product of depensatory and compensatory components. To properly address the influence upon the per capita growth rate and occupancy index of cars fleets from those concerns, a fertility (Allee depensation effect) component is incorporated. Japanese and worldwide automobile fleets are case studies. Synergetic coupling of this methodology to TI techniques is commented upon.


Keywords: Japan; automotive fleets; evolutionary growth; logistics modelling; Allee depensation effect; fleet evolution; cooperativity effect; long range trends; structured residuals analysis; automobile industry; technology intelligence.


DOI: 10.1504/IJTIP.2011.041252


Int. J. of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2011 Vol.7, No.1, pp.33 - 53


Available online: 14 Jul 2011



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