Int. J. of Technology Intelligence and Planning   »   2010 Vol.6, No.1



Title: On trends and rhythms in scientific and technological knowledge evolution: a quantitative analysis


Author: Luiz C.M. Miranda, Carlos A.S. Lima


Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Sao Jose dos Campos, Rua Piedade, 175 – Campinas 13090-749, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, Rua Piedade, 175 – Campinas 13090-749, Sao Paulo, Brazil


Abstract: The evolutionary character of science and technology and their social implications are tracked down by studying five centuries long time series encompassing both the most impacting published scientific works and recorded technological inventions and a 125 years long time series of major granted patents. Using a novel procedure (Miranda and Lima, 2010a, 2010b), typical Kuznets economic cycles (15-25 years) are shown to be modulating the multi-logistic modelling-to-data corresponding residuals series, suggesting that changes and investments in infrastructure are essential driving motors for the observed data. Amidst a complex of components, knowledge evolution emerges as a major one in providing the overall force that catalyses the ensuing basic socially impacting changes. Our results are also discussed under the views of a world system theoretical framework where knowledge evolution, technological intelligence and innovation join together into a feedback system that influenced decision-making towards socio-economic policies that enhanced human welfare evolution throughout centuries.


Keywords: knowledge evolution characteristics; multi-logistic modelling; historical time series; scientific discoveries; technological inventions; granted patents; evolutionary processes; economic cycles; model-to-data residuals analysis; technological intelligence; innovation decision making.


DOI: 10.1504/IJTIP.2010.033925


Int. J. of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2010 Vol.6, No.1, pp.76 - 109


Available online: 04 Jul 2010



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