Title: Incorporating uncertainty into adaptive, transboundary water challenges: a conceptual design for the Okavango River basin

 

Author: Gregory A. Kiker, Rafael Munoz-Carpena, Piotr Wolski, Anna Cathey, Andrea Gaughan, Jongbum Kim

 

Address: Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA. ' Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA. ' Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre, University of Botswana, Maun, Botswana. ' Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA. ' Department of Geography, Land Use and Environmental Change Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA. ' Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, US Army Corps of Engineers – Engineering Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180, USA

 

Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management, 2008 Vol.10, No.4, pp.312 - 338

 

Abstract: In this paper, we present a review and conceptual design to integrate hydrological/ecological models, global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, integrative modelling and decision analysis for complex and adaptive transboundary challenges. The research uses the transboundary issues within the Okavango River basin, a shared water resource among the nations of Angola, Namibia and Botswana, as an example for constructing these integrated tools. The objective of this paper is to present a design that integrates a set of tools that builds systematically on past basin modelling research to incorporate the inherent uncertainty within the system and its application for answering practical management questions.

 

Keywords: Okavango River basin; uncertainty analysis; AM; adaptive management; global sensitivity analysis; QnD model; decision analysis; hydrological modelling; ecological modelling; Angola; Namibia; Botswana; river basin modelling; transboundary water resources; risk assessment.

 

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2008.022130

10.1504/08.22130

 

 

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