The up-coming crisis and loan portfolio quality in Romania and Bulgaria
by Sebastijan Repina, Mejra Festic
International Journal of Business Environment (IJBE), Vol. 3, No. 4, 2010

Abstract: We analysed the relationship between the non-performing loan ratio and macroeconomic variables as a source of systemic risk, in order to assess the vulnerability of the banking sector to bad-loan performance on a macroeconomic level by panel regression. The theory of procyclicality between net exports, GDP, foreign direct investments and the non-performing loan ratio was proven. Increased economic activity improved the loan portfolio quality of the banking sector, as indicated by a lower NPL ratio. Due to a high share of loans denominated in a foreign currency and the fact of productivity gains in the tradable sector, the appreciation of the real exchange rate contributed to an improvement in loan portfolio quality. A slowdown in economic activity is likely to accelerate the non-performing loan ratio in Bulgaria and Romania.

Online publication date: Mon, 20-Dec-2010

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