Flight-delay propagation, allowing for behavioural response Online publication date: Thu, 21-Jun-2007
by Chaug-Ing Hsu, Che-Chang Hsu, Hui-Chieh Li
International Journal of Critical Infrastructures (IJCIS), Vol. 3, No. 3/4, 2007
Abstract: This study constructs models to analyse flight-delay propagation, allowing for behavioural response. It investigates three scenarios: the same aircraft operating consecutive flights, consecutive flights with different aircraft using the same gate, and different flights using different aircraft involving the transfers. The case study further uses data from China Airline to demonstrate the application of the models. The probability distributions of the total, arrival and ground operation delays are derived. In addition, the probability of flights departing on time, the average wait for departure and the average departure delay of flights are calculated. The results show that the parameter representing the behavioural response is close to or exceeds 1, meaning that most of the buffer time is for consolidating more passengers into each flight. Furthermore, the departure delay of flights is larger when considering the effects of the time slot, than without considering the time slot.
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