Final and dynamic mortality prediction from earthquakes in China
by Xiaoxin Zhu; Baiqing Sun
International Journal of Emergency Management (IJEM), Vol. 13, No. 2, 2017

Abstract: This paper aims at predicting the dynamic death tolls in earthquakes using a combination of case-based reasoning and a times series model from realistic perspective. The proposed methodology consists of three steps: 1) fuzzy clustering to classify Chinese earthquakes; 2) mortality rates calculating to predict the final death tolls; 3) time series modelling to predict dynamic number of deaths. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20%, and opens the door for conducting final and dynamic death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach.

Online publication date: Mon, 06-Mar-2017

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