Title: Are toxic load-based toxicity models consistent with experimental observations? Independent analysis of steady-exposure data from the 2012-2013 ECBC/NAMRU-D toxicological experiments

Authors: Alexander Slawik; Kevin C. Axelrod; James B. Silva; Ivo Dimitrov; Jeffry T. Urban; Nathan Platt

Addresses: Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311-1882, USA ' McKinsey & Company, 280 Congress Street, Suite 1100, Boston, MA 02210-1028, USA ' SAS Institute, 10188 Telesis Court #200, San Diego, CA 92121-4779, USA ' Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311-1882, USA ' Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311-1882, USA ' Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311-1882, USA

Abstract: This work explores the validity of the toxic load model, which is often used to predict the health effects of airborne releases of toxic materials. In 2012 and 2013 the US Army's Edgewood Chemical and Biological Center (ECBC) and the Naval Medical Research Unit Dayton (NAMRU-D) conducted toxicological experiments to explore the effects of time-varying inhalation exposures of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) gas on rats. Independent analysis of the steady-exposure subset of experimental data indicates that the toxic load model is not valid over the full range of the experiments' exposure durations, assuming that there was no systematic experimental error. The model fits the data poorly for exposure durations under ten minutes.

Keywords: toxicology; toxic load; toxic load model; toxicity model; hazardous materials; acute inhalation exposure; steady exposures; consequence assessment; health effects; health and exposure assessment; hydrogen cyanide; HCN; rats; ECBC; NAMRU-D; DTRA.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2018.099462

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2018 Vol.64 No.4, pp.283 - 291

Accepted: 29 Sep 2018
Published online: 06 May 2019 *

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