Title: Extreme value analysis for capacity design
Authors: Szilárd Bozóki; András Pataricza
Addresses: Department of Measurement and Information Systems, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary ' Department of Measurement and Information Systems, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary
Abstract: Cloud computing has become the fundamental platform for service offerings. Such services frequently face peaks in their variable workload. Thus, the cloudification of critical applications with strict service level agreements (e.g., performability) needs a properly engineered capacity to withstand peak loads. A core problem is the prediction of the value of peaks, especially in bursty workloads. They originate in the cumulative effect of hard-to-predict rare and extreme events. Luckily, system monitoring collects enough vital information for a prediction by statistical methods. Extreme value analysis focuses on the prediction of future peaks. This paper investigates the use of extreme value theory for capacity planning in cloud platforms and services and assesses the technical metrology aspects as well.
Keywords: cloud computing; performability engineering; capacity design; extreme value analysis; EVA; Facebook Prophet.
International Journal of Cloud Computing, 2018 Vol.7 No.3/4, pp.204 - 225
Received: 04 Aug 2017
Accepted: 26 Dec 2017
Published online: 03 Oct 2018 *