Title: Extreme value analysis for capacity design

Authors: Szilárd Bozóki; András Pataricza

Addresses: Department of Measurement and Information Systems, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary ' Department of Measurement and Information Systems, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary

Abstract: Cloud computing has become the fundamental platform for service offerings. Such services frequently face peaks in their variable workload. Thus, the cloudification of critical applications with strict service level agreements (e.g., performability) needs a properly engineered capacity to withstand peak loads. A core problem is the prediction of the value of peaks, especially in bursty workloads. They originate in the cumulative effect of hard-to-predict rare and extreme events. Luckily, system monitoring collects enough vital information for a prediction by statistical methods. Extreme value analysis focuses on the prediction of future peaks. This paper investigates the use of extreme value theory for capacity planning in cloud platforms and services and assesses the technical metrology aspects as well.

Keywords: cloud computing; performability engineering; capacity design; extreme value analysis; EVA; Facebook Prophet.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCC.2018.095353

International Journal of Cloud Computing, 2018 Vol.7 No.3/4, pp.204 - 225

Received: 04 Aug 2017
Accepted: 26 Dec 2017

Published online: 20 Sep 2018 *

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