Authors: Anton Talantsev; Aron Larsson; David Sundgren
Addresses: Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Postbox 7003, 164 07 Kista, Sweden ' Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Kista, Sweden; Risk and Crisis Research Centre, Mid Sweden University, Kunskapens väg 1, 831 25 Östersund, Sweden ' Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Kista, Sweden
Abstract: The long-term success or failure of a development project is largely shaped by the external context. Therefore, assessment of factors influencing fulfilment of long-term development outcomes is vital for better project planning. In recent decades, the logical framework (logframe) has de facto become a standard tool for planning and managing development interventions. While the logframe requires identification of assumptions and risks regarding the external context, it does not suggest ways to analyse them in a conventional risk assessment manner. Also, the log-frame has been criticised for ignoring uncertainty in project environment along with neglecting external opportunities. Therefore, in this paper we suggest a method for project context analysis that extends the log-frame with scenarios analysis and address aforementioned shortcomings. We implement and demonstrate the application of the method on an international aid development project, discuss the method's potential use-cases, specific limitations and future development.
Keywords: project success factors; context factors; project uncertainty; project risk analysis; logical framework approach; LFA; Monte Carlo simulation.
International Journal of Applied Management Science, 2018 Vol.10 No.4, pp.290 - 318
Received: 10 May 2017
Accepted: 11 Nov 2017
Published online: 04 Sep 2018 *