Title: Application of first-order reliability method to modelling the fate and transport of benzene in groundwater

Authors: Maged M. Hamed, Manar Z. El-Beshry

Addresses: Faculty of Engineering, Department of Public Works, Cairo University, Giza 12211, Egypt. ' National Water Research Center, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Egypt

Abstract: Parameter uncertainty plays a significant role in decision making regarding groundwater contamination and remediation, especially for non-conservative chemicals. This paper presents a probabilistic screening model to accommodate parameter uncertainty in the aquifer media, and physical–chemical parameters, using the first-order reliability method (FORM). The application of the developed model is illustrated on transport of benzene in groundwater. The results matched those obtained using the Monte Carlo simulation method, with a smaller number of functional evaluations. Parametric studies were conducted to estimate the effect of various parameters on the results.

Keywords: uncertainty analysis; probability; groundwater quality; modelling; hydrocarbon; transport; reliability; Monte Carlo simulation; first-order reliability; benzene; groundwater contamination; water pollution; contaminant transport; probabilistic screening; environmental monitoring; environmental pollution; environmental protection.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2006.009325

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2006 Vol.26 No.4, pp.327 - 346

Published online: 20 Mar 2006 *

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