Title: Quantifying the roles of human error and his/her state-of-health: use of the double-exponential-probability-distribution-function

Authors: Ephraim Suhir

Addresses: Portland State University, P.O. Box 751, Portland, Oregon 97207-0751, USA; ERS Co., 727 Alvina Ct., Los Altos CA 94024, USA; Vienna Institute of Technology, Institute E366, TU Vienna, Gusshausstraße 27-29, A-1040 Wien, Vienna, Austria

Abstract: The probabilistic predictive modelling (PPM) approach in human-in-the-loop (HITL) related aerospace problems enables one to predict, quantify, assure and even specify the probability of the outcome of an aerospace mission or a situation when the performance of a never-perfect human, never-100%-reliable instrumentation (equipment), never absolutely predictable response of the object of control (aero or spacecraft), uncertain and often harsh environment, as well as the interaction (interfaces) of these uncertainties, contribute jointly to the likelihood of such an outcome. The objective of this paper is to generate thinking on how to advance the state-of-the-art in today's aerospace human psychology and particularly, on how to quantify, by both modelling and experimentation, the HITL related effort when the HF and equipment/instrumentation performance contribute jointly to the outcome (success and safety) of an aerospace mission or an extraordinary situation.

Keywords: reliability; aerospace engineering; avionics psychology; mission success and safety; human factor.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHFMS.2018.093178

International Journal of Human Factors Modelling and Simulation, 2018 Vol.6 No.2/3, pp.140 - 161

Received: 27 Sep 2017
Accepted: 17 Dec 2017

Published online: 28 Jun 2018 *

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