Title: Forecasting with limited intermittent data: a methodological framework applicable to newly established firms
Authors: Maria Chatzipanagioti
Addresses: Department of Logistics, Technological Educational Institute of Central Macedonia, 2nd Kanellopoulou str., Katerini 60100, Greece
Abstract: Nowadays, the motivation for starting a new business in Greece is necessity. As the Greek economy is experiencing the eighth year of recession, there are many newly established SMEs striving to survive. Their main difficulty lies in forecasting demand, while having both limited and intermittent data. Although the literature provides several forecasting techniques for intermittent demand, most of them are not applicable in case of short demand history. This paper provides a methodological framework for intermittent demand forecasting applicable to newly established firms with limited demand data. The proposed quantitative decision support methodology is evaluated empirically and its usage is demonstrated through its application on real data of a newly established SME in Greece. The results demonstrate that the methodology can be used to forecast demand for products with limited intermittent data. Challenges concerning all stages of the methodology are discussed, while sensitivity analyses are conducted and interesting managerial insights are presented.
Keywords: forecasting; business forecasting; quantitative decision support methodology; methodological framework; new firm; intermittent demand; limited demand data; small and medium-sized enterprises; SMEs; economic crisis; economic recession; Greece.
International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, 2018 Vol.4 No.2, pp.154 - 177
Received: 26 May 2017
Accepted: 26 Aug 2017
Published online: 14 Feb 2018 *