Title: A Delphi-based scenario analysis of Turkish logistics industry for 2023

Authors: İsmail Çağrı Özcan; Volkan Recai Çetin; Muhammed Bilge Kağan Albayrak

Addresses: Ministry of Development, Necatibey Cad. No:110/A-1307 Yücetepe, Ankara, Turkey ' Ministry of Development, Necatibey Cad. No:110/A-1307 Yücetepe, Ankara, Turkey ' Ministry of Development, Necatibey Cad. No:110/A-1307 Yücetepe, Ankara, Turkey

Abstract: This study attempts to forecast future scenarios of Turkish logistics industry for 2023 which is the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Republic of Turkey. The major findings of the two-round Delphi survey reveal that the panel experts expect: 1) new foreign logistics firms will enter Turkish logistics market where the competitive advantages of the global logistics firms over their Turkish competitors will increase and vertical integration and consolidation tendency will likely to rise; 2) Turkey will become an international logistics centre thanks to its geographical advantage but political instabilities in Turkey's neighbour countries will continue to be a problem for goods transportation; 3) share of the state-owned enterprises will decrease in logistics industry but ambiguity in authorisation process of relevant public agencies in logistics industry will maintain the situation of too many talking heads; 4) Turkey will improve its position in the logistics performance index.

Keywords: logistics industry; Delphi method; Turkey; scenario analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJLSM.2018.089791

International Journal of Logistics Systems and Management, 2018 Vol.29 No.3, pp.349 - 373

Received: 01 Feb 2016
Accepted: 28 Oct 2016
Published online: 12 Feb 2018 *

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