Title: Future passenger air traffic modelling: a theoretical concept to integrate quality of travel, cost of travel and capacity constraints

Authors: Robin Ghosh; Katrin Kölker; Ivan Terekhov; Volker Gollnick

Addresses: DLR Air Transportation Systems, Department of Systems Analysis Air Transport, Blohmstr. 20, 21079 Hamburg, Germany ' DLR Air Transportation Systems, Department of Air Transport Operations and Infrastructures, Blohmstr. 20, 21079 Hamburg, Germany ' DLR Air Transportation Systems, Department of Systems Analysis Air Transport, Blohmstr. 20, 21079 Hamburg, Germany ' DLR Air Transportation Systems, Blohmstr. 20, 21079 Hamburg, Germany

Abstract: Systems analysis requires the modelling of possible future evolutions of the global air transportation system (ATS) as alternative quantitative scenarios. The starting point is the external socio-economic scenarios from which the future realised air passenger demand at city pair level is estimated. From the demand networks successively passenger routes networks and aircraft movements networks are derived for future time steps. This paper shows in sample analyses the results of the global modelling approach at city pair level - applied to the socio-economic scenario of Jorgen Randers' '2052' (2012). Global frequency distributions are shown as a function of great circle distance for sample aircraft sizes at future time steps. The continuous modelling at city pair level from the very beginning and the thinking in successive aircraft generations are especially valuable for global climate impact assessments of spatially dependent non-CO₂ emissions and needed to tackle the essence of the climate issue of civil aviation.

Keywords: aviation network modelling; systems analysis; scenario analysis; market outlook; future development of air transport; policy analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJAM.2017.089441

International Journal of Aviation Management, 2017 Vol.4 No.1/2, pp.29 - 47

Received: 07 Jul 2016
Accepted: 30 Apr 2017
Published online: 24 Jan 2018 *

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