Title: Validation of meteorological forecasts in fine spatial and temporal resolution produced as an input for dispersion models

Authors: Primož Mlakar; Dragana Kokal; Boštjan Grašič; Marija Zlata Božnar; Dejan Gradišar; Juš Kocijan

Addresses: MEIS d.o.o., Mali Vrh pri Šmarju 78, SI-1293, Šmarje-Sap, Slovenia ' MEIS d.o.o., Mali Vrh pri Šmarju 78, SI-1293, Šmarje-Sap, Slovenia ' MEIS d.o.o., Mali Vrh pri Šmarju 78, SI-1293, Šmarje-Sap, Slovenia ' MEIS d.o.o., Mali Vrh pri Šmarju 78, SI-1293, Šmarje-Sap, Slovenia ' Jozef Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, Ljubljana, Slovenia ' Jozef Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, Ljubljana, Slovenia; University of Nova Gorica, Vipavska 13, Nova Gorica, Slovenia

Abstract: In conditions of complex terrain, modelling of air pollutant dispersion still has a number of scientific challenges. Ideally, appropriate meteorological data should be available for modelling. Unfortunately, for many purposes, there is no time to carry out suitable measuring campaigns. Therefore the results of prognostic weather forecasts (NWP models) are being widely used. However, these models still have quite a few disadvantages when their results are used as input for dispersion models over complex terrain. This study presents the validation of the quality of the weather forecasts in the surroundings of the Nuclear Power Plant Krško in Slovenia, an area with highly complex terrain and the resulting complex meteorological characteristics. The forecast is available for a horizontal resolution of 2 km and half hour temporal interval and seven days in advance. The predicted meteorological parameters are validated using the measured meteorological parameters.

Keywords: validation; weather forecast; fine spatial and temporal resolution; complex terrain.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2017.089409

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2017 Vol.62 No.2/3/4, pp.236 - 246

Received: 22 Aug 2016
Accepted: 15 Feb 2017
Published online: 23 Jan 2018 *

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