Title: Human-in-the-loop: application of the double exponential probability distribution function enables one to quantify the role of the human factor

Authors: Ephraim Suhir

Addresses: Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA; ERS Co., 727 Alvina Ct., Los Altos, CA 94024, USA; Vienna Institute of Technology, Vienna, Austria

Abstract: The probabilistic predictive modelling approach in human-in-the-loop related aerospace problems enables one to predict, quantify, assure and even specify the probability of the favourable outcome of an aerospace mission or a situation, when the performance of the never perfect human, never 100%-reliable instrumentation (equipment), never absolutely predictable response of the object of control (aero- or space-craft), uncertain and often harsh environment, as well as the interaction (interfaces) of the above uncertainties, contribute jointly to the likelihood of such an outcome. As to the human factor, it includes two major aspects: human performance (error) and his/her state of health. While the reliability of the navigation instrumentation (equipment) could be evaluated using suitable and more or less well established modelling means, the role of the human factor, when quantification of the human role is critical, could be considered by using the double-exponential-probability-distribution-function (DEPDF).

Keywords: human factor; reliability; aerospace engineering; avionics psychology; mission success and safety.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHFMS.2017.10008109

International Journal of Human Factors Modelling and Simulation, 2017 Vol.5 No.4, pp.354 - 377

Received: 25 Jan 2017
Accepted: 01 Apr 2017

Published online: 28 Sep 2017 *

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