Title: An analysis of the electricity market and power needs in Shandong using vector autoregression

Authors: Songqing Yu; Junhai Ma; Hang Min; Xueli Zhan

Addresses: College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, 92, Weijin Road, Tianjin, China; The Power company in Linqing City, Shandong Province, LiaoCheng 252600, China ' College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, 92, Weijin Road, Tianjin, China ' State Grid Shandong Electric Company, Jinan 250000, China ' College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, 92, Weijin Road, Tianjin, China; School of Economics, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149, China

Abstract: Based on relevant data of economic and social development in Shandong Province, the authors analyse the status of the electricity market and determined four factors which affect the electricity demand: economic development, energy structure, power supply and demand as well as electricity demand structure. This paper analyses the stability of the electricity demand variable by augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and projection pursuit (PP) test, and analyses DCO-integration of them by Engle-Granger (EG) method and Johansen method. Based on stability and cointegration analysis, this paper emphasised a VAR model to analyse the correlation between electricity demand indicators and four other influencing factors. In the end, this paper suggested that had a certain theoretical and practical significance for Shandong Provincial Electric Power Development.

Keywords: electricity demand; stationary test; cointegration test; VAR model; demand forecasting; economic development; energy structure; power supply; power demand; demand structure; Shandong; vector autoregression; China.

DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2017.081792

International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences, 2017 Vol.10 No.1, pp.69 - 88

Received: 24 Jul 2016
Accepted: 19 Sep 2016
Published online: 24 Jan 2017 *

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