Title: System dynamics modelling-based analysis of combating counterfeit drugs supply chain in India

Authors: Sanjay Bhushan

Addresses: Department of Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, Dayalbagh Educational Institute (Deemed University), Dayalbagh, Agra 282 005 (UP), India

Abstract: The counterfeit drugs supply chain dynamics follow a counterintuitive pattern. Despite it being targeted by law enforcement policies, it has been going on increasing rampantly. This paper proposes a dynamic hypothesis based on systems approach, questioning the very way in which the supplies of counterfeit drugs have been regulated. Using the modelling framework of system dynamics (SD), a holistic influence model is propounded highlighting the mutual interplay and causality of influencing factors under the counterfeit drugs supply chain ecosystem. Various decision scenarios have been simulated assessing alternative policies for giving holistic response. The goal of this research was to identify the key policy intervention points critical for decision-making. It was also intended to assess the cascading effect that these interventionist decisions create over the entire chain. The simulation results show that expediting technology adoption and community education, together with stringent licensing and review control, can significantly reduce the incidences of counterfeit drugs supplies.

Keywords: counterfeit drugs; drug supply chains; system dynamics; simulation; scenario analysis; modelling; India; policy intervention; cascading effect; technology adoption; community education; licensing and review control; counterfeit drugs supplies.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEM.2017.10002059

International Journal of Emergency Management, 2017 Vol.13 No.1, pp.19 - 49

Received: 23 Oct 2015
Accepted: 09 Jan 2016

Published online: 26 Dec 2016 *

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