Title: Using system dynamics to model social vulnerability and resilience to coastal hazards

Authors: Erin P. Joakim; Linda Mortsch; Greg Oulahen; Deborah Harford; Yaheli Klein; Kirstin Damude; Kathy Tang

Addresses: University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada ' University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada ' University of British Columbia, 433-6333 Memorial Road, Vancouver BC V6T 1Z2, Canada ' Adaptation to Climate Change Team, Simon Fraser University #3230, 515 West Hastings Street, Vancouver, BC, V6B 5K3, Canada ' Adaptation to Climate Change Team, Simon Fraser University #3230, 515 West Hastings Street, Vancouver, BC, V6B 5K3, Canada ' University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada ' University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond Street, London, ON, N6A 3K7, Canada

Abstract: In response to increasing emphasis on adapting to climate change, various stakeholders have focused on building adaptive capacity and 'mainstreaming' adaptation policies, although the tools to achieve these goals are still developing. Using Metro Vancouver as a case study, this paper outlines how a system dynamics (SD) approach was used to develop a conceptual model of social vulnerability and resilience in order to simulate the impact of potential adaptation polices. The SD approach was particularly effective for: modelling the underlying constructs and feedbacks related to vulnerability; linking vulnerability and resilience concepts; and integrating the responses and actions taken at various scales. Challenges included modelling the relationship between vulnerability and resilience, and establishing causal linkages and directional relationships between feedbacks. The model demonstrates the potential for SD tools to help stakeholders bridge the gap between theory and on-the-ground decision-making by providing insight into the potential effectiveness of proposed adaptation interventions.

Keywords: system dynamics; social vulnerability; resilience; climate change; coastal cities; Metro Vancouver; modelling; coastal hazards; conceptual models; adaptive capacity; adaptation policies; Vancouver; Canada.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEM.2016.079846

International Journal of Emergency Management, 2016 Vol.12 No.4, pp.366 - 391

Received: 22 Oct 2015
Accepted: 25 Jan 2016
Published online: 18 Oct 2016 *

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