Title: A modelling framework for the forecasting of energy consumption and CO2 emissions at local/regional level

Authors: Vangelis Marinakis; Panos Xidonas; Haris Doukas

Addresses: National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Management & Decision Support Systems Laboratory (EPU-NTUA), 9 Iroon Polytechniou str., Athens 15780, Greece ' ESSCA École de Management, 55 Quai Alphonse Le Gallo, 92513 Paris, France ' National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Management & Decision Support Systems Laboratory (EPU-NTUA), 9 Iroon Polytechniou str., Athens 15780, Greece

Abstract: Building appropriate scenarios for the elaboration of Sustainable Energy Action Plans, within the framework of the Covenant of Mayors, is a complex task. One major question to be addressed is whether the selected combination of examined measures and actions is considered enough for the local authorities to achieve their long-term target of CO2 emissions reduction. The proposed decision support model aims to address this issue, by enabling the elaboration of long-term scenarios of energy consumption and CO2 emissions at local/regional level. The Delphi method is appropriately applied for embracing experts' judgements. Moreover, an overall algorithm for the future scenarios ('BAU Scenario', 'Economic Prosperity Scenario' and 'Economic Recession Scenario') is introduced, along with a corresponding computerised software. The system's pilot application to a Greek community is presented and discussed. The proposed approach could support the decision-making process for the elaboration of Sustainable Energy Action Plan within the Covenant of Mayors.

Keywords: decision support systems; DSS; scenario analysis; sustainable energy action plans; sustainable development; Covenant of Mayors; sustainability; modelling; energy forecasting; energy consumption; CO2; carbon dioxide; carbon emissions; local level; regional level; Delphi method; decision making; Greece; air pollution; air quality.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2016.079374

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2016 Vol.39 No.6, pp.444 - 460

Received: 02 Nov 2015
Accepted: 20 Apr 2016

Published online: 17 Sep 2016 *

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