Title: Ontology-based approach to disruption scenario generation for critical infrastructure systems

Authors: Paolo Trucco; Boris Petrenj; Sara Bouchon; Carmelo Di Mauro

Addresses: Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano, Italy ' Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano, Italy ' RGS – Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l., Via delle Medaglie d'Oro 8, 21100 Varese, Italy ' RGS – Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l., Via delle Medaglie d'Oro 8, 21100 Varese, Italy

Abstract: The systematic and complete identification of relevant disruption scenarios for critical infrastructure (CI) systems is still one of the major challenges to achieve a better resilience planning and engineering. The study aims to assist authorities and operators in this endeavour through creating a comprehensive and multi-dimensional all-hazards catalogue for CI. It is implemented by developing two ontologies: 1) CI systems ontology, covering energy, transport, water and telecommunications sectors, each being described through two sub-ontologies (physical and functional) interconnected within the service delivery process model; 2) hazards and threats ontology, comprising different typologies of events, their attributes, and possible effects to CI systems. The two ontologies are connected through vulnerability and (inter)dependency models. The main results achieved include: 1) a generalised and standardised specification framework for CIs and services; 2) a generalised and standardised all-hazards catalogue for CI; 3) an improved scenario generation process to support CI risk assessment.

Keywords: critical infrastructures; scenario analysis; ontology; vulnerability modelling; disruption scenarios; resilience planning; service delivery; process modelling; dependency models; interdependency models; risk assessment; infrastructure disruption.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCIS.2016.079022

International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2016 Vol.12 No.3, pp.248 - 272

Available online: 09 Sep 2016 *

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