Title: World energy outlook in 2020 focusing on China's energy impacts on the world and Northeast Asia

Authors: Ryoichi Komiyama, Li Zhidong, Kokichi Ito

Addresses: The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan - EDMC, Inui bldg Kachidoki, 13-1, Kachidoki 1, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0054, Japan. ' Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka-Machi, Nagaoka 940-2188, Japan ' The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan - EDMC, Inui bldg Kachidoki, 13-1, Kachidoki 1, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0054, Japan

Abstract: This paper presents a consistent international energy projection developed by an integrated econometric model for the purpose of analysing China|s energy impacts on the energy markets in the world and Northeast Asia to 2020. Vigorous economic growth, soaring electricity demand and progressive motorisation are going to expand the primary energy demand in China, which accounts for a large part of the world primary energy increase, eventually positioning China as an important player in the world energy market and in terms of CO₂ emissions. Focusing on Northeast Asia, considerable oil demand growth in China, which has only a limited oil production, would increase the regional reliance on Middle Eastern oil, thereby underlining a serious energy security problem of oil importing countries in this region. It is becoming increasingly important for the energy issue to be addressed as one where all Northeast Asian countries have a common stake and can commit themselves.

Keywords: China; CO₂ emissions; carbon dioxide; electrification; energy outlook; integrated econometric model; motorisation; Northeast Asia; power generation; primary energy demand; world energy markets; Northeast Asia; energy forecast; energy impact; oil demand; energy security; regional energy; air pollution.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2005.007770

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2005 Vol.24 No.3/4, pp.183 - 210

Published online: 15 Sep 2005 *

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