Title: The uncertainty in modelled air concentrations of NOx due to choice of emission inventory

Authors: Maciej Kryza; Magdalena Jóźwicka; Anthony J. Dore; Małgorzata Werner

Addresses: Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection, Wrocław University, ul. Kosiby 6/8 51-621 Wrocław, Poland ' TNO – Climate, Air and Sustainability (CAS), Princetonlaan 6, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands ' Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, UK ' Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection, Wrocław University, ul. Kosiby 6/8 51-621 Wrocław, Poland

Abstract: Emission data, together with meteorology, is the most important input to air quality models. In this work we compare two simulations, performed with the fine resolution atmospheric multi-pollutant exchange (FRAME) model. In the first model run, we use an emission inventory prepared for Poland by downscaling the national total emissions to a 5 km × 5 km resolution grid. For the second model run, we replace the NOx road transport emission with the TNO-MACC II emission inventory available for the entire Europe. The grid mesh of both emission inventories was unified for this work to a 5 km × 5 km resolution, as required by the FRAME model. The FRAME model is run for the year 2008 and compared with the NOx measurements. Both inventories are in close spatial agreement, with a grid to grid correlation coefficient of 0.75. The FRAME model run with TNO-MACC II emission inventory shows better agreement with NOx measurements gathered at 106 stations if the mean bias is considered. For the model run with TNO-MACC II inventory, bias is −0.7 μg m³, and the RMSE is 8.19 μg m³. The bias for the FRAME model run with the national road transport emission inventory is −3.10 μg m³ and the RMSE 7.97 μg m³.

Keywords: emission inventory; FRAME model; nitrogen oxides; NOx concentrations; uncertainty; modelling; air quality; air pollution; simulation; Poland; road transport; vehicle emissions.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2015.074495

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2015 Vol.57 No.3/4, pp.123 - 132

Received: 19 Dec 2014
Accepted: 23 Jun 2015

Published online: 02 Feb 2016 *

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