Title: Probabilistic risk analysis of safety management system failure and impact on economic performance: the case of jet engine manufacturing

Authors: José Cristiano Pereira; Ricardo Bordeaux; Luiz Peres Zotes; Gilson B.A. Lima; Osvaldo Luiz Gonçalves Quelhas

Addresses: Departamento de Engenharia de Produção, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Rua Passos da Pátria, 156, Bloco D, Niterói, RJ, 24210-240, Brazil ' Departamento de Engenharia de Produção, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Rua Passos da Pátria, 156, Bloco D, Niterói, RJ, 24210-240, Brazil ' Departamento de Engenharia de Produção, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Rua Passos da Pátria, 156, Bloco D, Niterói, RJ, 24210-240, Brazil ' Departamento de Engenharia de Produção, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Rua Passos da Pátria, 156, Bloco D, Niterói, RJ, 24210-240, Brazil ' Departamento de Engenharia de Produção, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Rua Passos da Pátria, 156, Bloco D, Niterói, RJ, 24210-240, Brazil

Abstract: It is widely known that operational accidents affects the productivity of manufacturing industry and evidences show that the adoption of a safety management system (SMS) can influence economic performance. This paper presents a method to perform probabilistic risk analysis of safety system failure and analysis of the impact on costs and economic performance. The novelty is the use of probabilistic risk analysis with Bayesian belief network to evaluate the effects of safety system failure on costs. The method is applied in the overhaul of jet engines to identify the factors affecting the safety system failure, the probability of their occurrence and the impact on cost. This method utilises design thinking to classify the risks. This study adds to the growing understanding that probabilistic risk analysis of safety system failure and associated costs is essential for safety operation and for competitive performance in jet engine manufacturing system.

Keywords: safety management systems; SMS; probabilistic risk assessment; economic performance; jet engine manufacturing; safety system failure; operational accidents; productivity; manufacturing industry; Bayesian belief network; costs; jet engines; engine overhaul; design thinking.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMDM.2015.074013

International Journal of Management and Decision Making, 2015 Vol.14 No.4, pp.345 - 372

Received: 23 May 2015
Accepted: 24 Sep 2015
Published online: 02 Jan 2016 *

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