Title: Oil price and economic growth: an improved asymmetric co-integration approach

Authors: Jian Chai; Ying Yang; Limin Xing

Addresses: International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Shaanxi 710119, China ' International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Shaanxi 710119, China ' International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Shaanxi 710119, China

Abstract: Asymmetric co-integration is used in this paper to analyse the asymmetry relationship between oil price and economic growth. In contrast with widely used asymmetric co-integration method currently, three-way decomposition model is applied in this paper to explore more precise long-term asymmetric relationship between oil price and economy. Our empirical analysis not only concerns the China economy, but also includes the USA and Japan. The empirical results show that the asymmetric co-integration relationship between oil price and GDP cannot be proved in the three countries. However, according to the long-term relationship study, GDP is mostly effected by historically maximum oil price, especially in China and Japan.

Keywords: oil prices; economic growth; asymmetric co-integration; three-way decomposition modelling; China; USA; United States; Japan.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2015.070269

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2015 Vol.38 No.4/5/6, pp.278 - 285

Available online: 20 Jun 2015 *

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