Title: Long-term expansion planning for the Syrian electric system using the optimisation model WASP-IV

Authors: Ali Hainoun; Mohammed K. Seif Aldin; George Saba; Samauel Almoustafa

Addresses: Energy Planning Group, Nuclear Engineering Department, Atomic Energy Commission of Syrian (AECS), PO Box 6091, Damascus, Syria ' Energy Planning Group, Nuclear Engineering Department, Atomic Energy Commission of Syrian (AECS), PO Box 6091, Damascus, Syria ' Energy Planning Group, Nuclear Engineering Department, Atomic Energy Commission of Syrian (AECS), PO Box 6091, Damascus, Syria ' Energy Planning Group, Nuclear Engineering Department, Atomic Energy Commission of Syrian (AECS), PO Box 6091, Damascus, Syria

Abstract: An optimal expansion plan of the Syrian electricity generation system has been carried out using the IAEA's model WASP-IV. The entire new capacity addition of the Base Line Scenario amounts to 42,850 MW and the total generated electricity will reach 230 TWh by the year 2040 distributed to 20.8% NG, 29.3% LNG, 30.7% coal, 12.2% HFO, 6% nuclear and 1.1% hydro. The fuel consumption will grow at an annual average rate of 5.2% from 11.1 Mtoe to 47.7 Mtoe. The NPV of the economic cost of generated electricity for the entire study period is estimated to be US$ 86.78 billion corresponding to levelised generation cost of 23 US$/MWh. Two additional scenarios are considered to assess the future role of wind and nuclear energy-based generations. The results indicate the importance of both options in reducing generation cost and increasing power supply security.

Keywords: electricity generation; WASP model; optimal expansion planning; NPV; net present value; peak load; reserve margin; load loss probability; long-term planning; Syria; optimisation; fuel consumption; energy security; wind energy; wind power; nuclear energy; nuclear power; hydropower; fossil fuels.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2015.069483

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2015 Vol.38 No.1/2/3, pp.164 - 195

Available online: 18 May 2015 *

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