Title: Predicting the construction duration of building projects using artificial neural networks

Authors: Ahmed A. Gab-Allah; Ahmed H. Ibrahim; Omar A. Hagras

Addresses: Faculty of Engineering, Construction Engineering and Utility Department, Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt ' Faculty of Engineering, Construction Engineering and Utility Department, Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt ' Faculty of Engineering, Construction Engineering and Utility Department, Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt

Abstract: The accurate prediction of the duration of a construction project represents a critical factor for the feasibility study of this project. Employers are in an urgent need for reliable information about the construction duration in this early stage of the project. Such information can materially help project managers create a cash and material flow plan in a pre-set time. This paper aims to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting the expected construction duration of building projects in its early stage, where no detailed planning is available. The MATLAB program was used as a suitable environment for developing the proposed model. The required field data was collected from 130 building projects in Egypt, which fall within the appropriate sample size. Testing the validity of the model clearly showed that it has a good prediction capability with a maximum error of 14%.

Keywords: project management; project prediction; project duration; duration prediction; construction projects; building projects; artificial neural networks; ANNs; MATLAB; cash flow planning; material flow planning; Egypt.

DOI: 10.1504/IJAMS.2015.069259

International Journal of Applied Management Science, 2015 Vol.7 No.2, pp.123 - 141

Received: 08 May 2021
Accepted: 12 May 2021

Published online: 06 May 2015 *

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