Title: Time-based collision risk models for air traffic management systems

Authors: Alan Bell; Adrian Gheorghe

Addresses: Batten College of Engineering and Technology, Old Dominion University, 241 Kaufman Hall, Norfolk, VA 23529, USA ' Batten College of Engineering and Technology, Old Dominion University, 241 Kaufman Hall, Norfolk, VA 23529, USA

Abstract: A finite supply of airspace and limited opportunities for expansion of physical infrastructure has led aviation authorities worldwide to commit substantial resources toward the development of new initiatives to accommodate rising demand in the global airspace system. The European Union is developing the Single European Sky, while a parallel program in the USA, the Next Generation Air Traffic Management System, or NextGen, is introducing systems and procedures that promise safer operations, increased efficiency, and environmental sustainability. This paper serves to present two enabling steps toward achievement of those objectives. The first is the establishment of a metric to express the time-based performance of aircraft operating in trajectory-based operations environments. The second is a pair of stochastic models that provide a method by which the collision risk between these aircraft may be determined. Application is then demonstrated for the purpose of illustrating how future capacity requirements may be managed while maintaining an adequate margin of safety. The paper concludes by providing insight into the nature of required time performance that will be necessary to support forecasted levels of air traffic.

Keywords: risk modelling; required time performance; RTP; air traffic management; global airspace; trajectory-based operations; time-based collision risk models; air traffic control; safer operations; increased efficiency; environmental sustainability; aircraft collisions; stochastic modelling; capacity requirements; margin of safety; safe flying; aircraft safety.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSSE.2014.067103

International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, 2014 Vol.5 No.4, pp.324 - 378

Received: 12 Jul 2014
Accepted: 07 Sep 2014

Published online: 31 Jan 2015 *

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