Title: Comparison of hazard area and casualty predictions of a small-scale chemical attack using various toxic load toxicity models

Authors: Jeffry T. Urban; Keith J. Galvin; Nathan Platt; Paul E. Bieringer; George Bieberbach; Andrew J. Annunzio

Addresses: Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311-1882, USA ' Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634-0975, USA ' Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311-1882, USA ' National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, CO 80301, USA ' National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, CO 80301, USA ' National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, CO 80301, USA

Abstract: It has been observed that the toxic load model can better account for toxic effects from chemical exposures than Haber's law. However, the toxic load model has been experimentally validated only for steady exposures. We compare four proposed extensions of the toxic load model to the case of time-varying exposures. We conclude that the choice of the toxic load model can be important in consequence assessment studies that use realistic time-varying toxic exposures.

Keywords: casualty assessment; consequence assessment; Haber's law; toxic load modelling; ensemble averaged plume; hazard areas; casualties; small-scale chemical attack; toxicity models; chemical exposure; time-varying exposures.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2014.065123

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2014 Vol.54 No.2/3/4, pp.222 - 232

Available online: 13 Oct 2014

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