Title: Housing market system and policy experiment: an empirical case in Shenzhen

Authors: Qingsheng Meng; Yikun Huang

Addresses: Department of Real Estate Research, Center of Assessment and Development of Real Estate, Shenzhen, China ' Department of Real Estate Research, Center of Assessment and Development of Real Estate, Shenzhen, China

Abstract: This paper attempts to apply system dynamic technique to solve the problems of market forecasting and policy experiments. By constructing a dynamic system to depict the housing market mechanism, our study provides a tool to investigate how different housing policies will influence the market simultaneously. In addition, with an empirical case of Shenzhen, a major city of southern China, we illustrate how our system performs in real world. The error between predicted housing prices and real housing prices can be reduced to merely 8.72%; and we also show how the Shenzhen Government analyse housing policy before execution.

Keywords: housing markets; system dynamics; market simulation; policy experiments; China; market forecasting; housing policies; market mechanisms; case studies; predicted prices; real prices.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBSR.2014.065006

International Journal of Business and Systems Research, 2014 Vol.8 No.4, pp.379 - 391

Received: 07 Dec 2013
Accepted: 17 Feb 2014
Published online: 30 Sep 2014 *

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