Title: Natural gas: world trade prospects at the beginning of the next century

Authors: Yuri Sinyak

Addresses: USSR Academy of Sciences, Working Group on Long-term Energy Forecasting and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, USSR

Abstract: New elements in the global energy scene - climatic changes and environmental degradation - have appeared recently which demand revision of old concepts and policies in energy systems development. Natural gas could satisfy many of today|s requirements. Several scenarios for world natural gas markets differentiated by region (North America, Western Europe and Japan), crude oil price projections, the behaviours of potential natural gas exporters and the strategies adopted by importers are considered. On the basis of detailed energy demand projections natural gas price-demand prospects for three world markets until 2020 are obtained and discussed. Conclusions about the effectiveness of further natural gas trade expansion are formulated, and some new possibilities for Soviet natural gas exports to the West as well as to the East are demonstrated.

Keywords: East-West trade; energy demand; export potential; natural gas markets; energy prices; energy resources; gas reserves; energy systems development.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.1991.063672

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 1991 Vol.3 No.2, pp.70-80

Published online: 18 Jul 2014 *

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