Title: The 1860-1988 CO2 emission and concentration data: econometric implications for sustainable fossil fuel use

Authors: Bruce C. Cohen

Addresses: Economic Affairs Officer, Energy Division, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, Switzerland

Abstract: In this paper, a proximative modelling approach is used which accounts for both year-to-year movements and much longer swings in the connection between atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and anthropogenic carbon emissions, both from fossil fuel use and from land use, including deforestation. A quantitative relationship is estimated in order to come to grips with a normative target - to find the rate of fossil fuel energy use consistent with an unchanging level of CO₂ concentration over time, the definition employed for sustainable energy use. The resulting findings - that very drastic cuts in energy use would have to be made even if the target CO2 concentration were to be set considerably higher than the on-going level - is not in itself innovative. What is new is to quantify econometrically the above-mentioned carbon emission-CO₂, relationship. The estimation of the rate of sustainable fossil fuel use consistent with a(ny) normative CO₂ target is then made possible. The results indicate that the cut in fossil fuel required to stabilize CO₂ concentrations at 451 parts per million in the atmosphere (p.p.m.), compared with 351p.p.m. in 1988, would require about a 70 per cent cut in fossil fuel use, even with no net contribution to carbon in the atmosphere from land use including deforestation. This result, in line with that obtained by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), underscores the severity and long-term nature of the CO₂ (and greenhouse gas) challenge.

Keywords: CO2 concentration; carbon dioxide; carbon emissions; energy policy; fossil fuel use; greenhouse effect; econometrics; sustainable development; sustainability; modelling; air pollution; land use; deforestation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.1992.063608

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 1992 Vol.4 No.1/2, pp.65-73

Published online: 17 Jul 2014 *

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