Title: Global ecodynamics: now and in the future

Authors: Victor G. Gorshkov, Kirill Ya. Kondratyev, Kim S. Losev

Addresses: Institute of Nuclear Physics, 188350 Gatchina-St. Petersburg, Russia. ' Research Center of Ecological Safety, 199034 St Petersburg, University emb., 5, Russia. ' Institute of Scientific Information, 125219 Moscow, Ussievitcha, 20A, Russia

Abstract: The concentration of biologically active substances in the environment has,been supported by the earth|s biomass at a certain level of stability through the millenia. All occasional disturbances to the environment are compensated for through relevant changes of biotic parameters. A totality of strictly determined and closely interacting bio-organisms, which are able to support environmental stability, have been selected over billions years of biological evolution. These organisms in their interaction with the environment constitute the biosphere. A critical threshold of disturbances above which the biosphere looses its stability has been substantiated. It has been shown. that the anthropogenic disturbances of land biota exceeded the threshold at the very beginning of the nineteenth century, while disturbances of oceanic biota are still below the threshold. Stabilization of the environment on a global scale can be restored only through a fall in anthropogenic disturbances below the threshold level.

Keywords: biologically active substances; biosphere; ecology; environmental change; global ecodynamics.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.1994.063549

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 1994 Vol.6 No.3/4/5, pp.254-262

Published online: 16 Jul 2014 *

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