Title: Forecasting Algerian oil export revenues in a deregulated market

Authors: Rabea Ferrouhki, Fatih Birol

Addresses: Economics Department of University Dauphine, Paris, France. ' Economic Analysis Division of the OECD/IEA

Abstract: Similar to other oil exporting developing countries, one of the crucial issues facing the Algerian energy market is the heavily subsidised prices of domestic petroleum products. Currently, they still lie substantially below economic cost. Such a policy brings about excessive domestic oil demand. This, in turn, not only leads to a lower energy efficiency, but also results in oil revenues being foregone. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of a subsidy phase-out policy on the evolution of oil export availability of the country. To do that, we first analyse the relationship between oil demand on a sectoral basis by using a standard econometric approach. Then, we construct two scenarios, namely the Business as Usual and the Subsidy Phase-out scenarios in order to sketch out the long-term effects of a change in the pricing policy. The empirical results are revealing. An economically efficient pricing policy would generate additional oil revenues for the country.

Keywords: Algeria; oil exports; export revenues; petroleum products subsidy; oil products; energy efficiency; econometrics; pricing policy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.1995.063496

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 1995 Vol.7 No.5/6, pp.317-323

Available online: 15 Jul 2014 *

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