Title: A reconsideration of the effect of crude oil price volatility on unemployment in the United States

Authors: Noel D. Uri, Roy Boyd

Addresses: Commodity Economics Division, Economic Research Service, FEB/CEDIERS (Rm 1124), US Department of Agriculture, 1301 New York Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20005, USA. ' Department of Economics, Ohio University, Athens, OH, USA

Abstract: This study begins by asking whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected employment in the United States. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between unemployment and crude oil price volatility is established using Granger causality. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in unemployment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in unemployment and the volatility of the price of crude oil and the percentage change in gross national product is examined.

Keywords: energy policy; oil price volatility; oil prices; unemployment; United States; USA; crude oil; Granger causality.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.1995.063493

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 1995 Vol.7 No.5/6, pp.291-301

Available online: 15 Jul 2014 *

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