Title: The econometric approach to carbon-dioxide concentration modelling: uncertainties and the policy dimension

Authors: Bruce C. Cohen, Walter C. Labys

Addresses: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. ' United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to review from a critical point of view some of the attempts we have made in modelling CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere in relation to ongoing carbon emissions and their connection with energy use. These results have been published previously in the International Journal of Global Energy Issues and the International Journal of Environment and Pollution and are annexed as Tables 1 and 2 for convenience of the reader. The paper begins by explaining the difficulties of accounting for the residual between anthropogenic sources of carbon which augment carbon-dioxide concentrations and sinks which absorb carbon from the atmosphere. This exercise is necessary to make clear the uncertainties in the econometric approach. Then the results of our econometric equations are analysed from the perspective of useful policy making concerning the question of which choice of policy instruments might best achieve a desired long-run concentration equilibrium. Despite some misgivings, we think we have a meaningful econometric message: that stabilising carbon-dioxide concentrations in the long-run implies an inevitable and drastic reduction in the use of fossil fuels as a share of total primary energy supply, even if the problem of deforestation is resolved. The use of fossil fuels would consequently be limited to a rate consistent with the maintenance of a targeted level of concentrations. At the same time, the development of new energy resources as the mainstay to support economic activity is required, so long as (the absolute value of) long-term global energy efficiency growth is less than the growth rate of world GDP.

Keywords: carbon dioxide; CO2; econometrics; pollution modelling; energy policy; environmental policy; carbon emissions; air pollution.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.1998.063296

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 1998 Vol.10 No.2/3/4, pp.174 - 179

Published online: 09 Jul 2014 *

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