Authors: Lin-Yee Hin; Nikolai Dokuchaev
Addresses: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, 6845, Western Australia ' Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, 6845, Western Australia
Abstract: This paper suggests a method of estimation of the implied volatility smile uncertainty of the observed options prices due to future risk-free rate uncertainty. The purpose is to quantify the range of uncertainty under different scenarios. We consider the setting where both the implied volatility and the risk free rate are calculated jointly from the observed option prices. Due to the cumulative risk-free rate uncertainty, the corresponding system of equations is underdetermined, leading to uncertainty in the volatility surface. We estimate the size of implied volatility layers between the surfaces representing the upper and lower bounds for the implied volatilities for the future risk-free rate uncertainty, defined by current Libor rate and the size of fluctuation estimated from the historical data.
Keywords: implied volatility surfaces; IVSs; implied volatility layers; risk-free rate term structure; interest rate forecasting; rate uncertainty; options pricing; Libor rate; fluctuation size.
International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, 2014 Vol.3 No.4, pp.392 - 408
Available online: 04 Jun 2014 *Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article