Title: Effects of concentration fluctuations on statistical evaluations of centreline concentration estimates by atmospheric dispersion models

Authors: J.S. Irwin

Addresses: Atmospheric Sciences Modelling Division (MD-14), Air Resources Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA

Abstract: An investigation is undertaken of a concept expressed in a draft Guide under construction, which recommends that evaluation data having similar meteorological and physical conditions be grouped together, the modelling results and observations be separately averaged and that the evaluation shall consist of a comparison of the respective averages. It is determined that, even though large uncertainties are associated with this process, the summary conclusions reached regarding relative model performance in estimating the average centreline concentration values are preserved. It is recommended that the Guide be finalised for routine use and the concepts further tested using other testable features in the concentration pattern.

Keywords: air dispersion modelling; model performance; statistical evaluation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2001.000604

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2001 Vol.16 No.1/2/3/4/5/6, pp.36-48

Published online: 07 Jul 2003 *

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