Title: Analysing the spatial variability of ground-level ozone in the UK using a generalised additive model

Authors: Said Munir; Karl Ropkins; Haibo Chen

Addresses: The Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Institute for Hajj and Umrah Research, Umm Al Qura University, P.O. Box 6287, Makkah, Saudi Arabia; Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, West Yorkshire, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK ' Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, 36 – 40 University Road, West Yorkshire, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK ' Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, 36 – 40 University Road, West Yorkshire, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK

Abstract: A generalised additive model is developed using annual mean ozone concentration as dependent variable and Cartesian coordinates, altitude, proximity to coast and nitrogen oxides (NOx) concentration as independent variables, which are all easy to obtain and apply. The model shows high concentrations at higher altitudes and closer proximity to coasts and an underlying south easterly trend in the UK. NOx, which is mainly derived from road traffic in urban areas, is negatively associated with ozone and appears to provide a good descriptor for urban versus rural locations. Used in combination with previously published NOx projections, the model estimates an average 26% increase in urban ozone across the UK by 2020. The spatial variability of annual ozone concentration (µg/m³) is compared with health related ozone metrics (SOMO35 µg/m³) hr) and the metrics set up for the protection of agricultural crops (AOT40 µg/m³)).

Keywords: ground level ozone; AOT40, SOMO35; spatial model; generalised additive model; GAM; air pollution; air quality; annual mean; NOx; UK; United Kingdom; spatial parameters; altitude; ozone modelling; environmental pollution; nitrogen oxides; urban ozone; health related ozone metrics; agricultural crop protection metrics.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2013.058815

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2013 Vol.53 No.1/2, pp.176 - 194

Received: 14 Jan 2013
Accepted: 05 Sep 2013

Published online: 22 Jan 2014 *

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