Title: Sensitivity analysis framework for large-scale system-of-systems applications

Authors: Shannon R. Bowling; Ghaith Rabadi; Mahmoud T. Khasawneh; Nevan E.N. Shearer

Addresses: College of Engineering Technology and Computer Science, Bluefield State College, 219 Rock Street – Dickason Hall 316, Bluefield, WV 24701, USA ' Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, Old Dominion University, 241 Kaufman Hall, Norfolk, Virginia 23529, USA ' Department of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physics, Texas A&M International University, 5201 University Blvd, Laredo, TX 78041, USA ' Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, Old Dominion University, 241 Kaufman Hall, Norfolk, Virginia 23529, USA

Abstract: Sensitivity analysis (SA) is studying the impact input changes (nature and magnitude) have on outputs. The objective of this paper is to present a methodology to perform sensitivity analysis on a system dynamics simulation model that was developed in support of the Secure Border Initiative (SBI). Specifically the analysis will investigate Section 287(g) of The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (1996). Due to the fact that the systems dynamics model used is a deterministic model, there was a need to induce variability using random sampling. The variability was propagated through the outputs and allowed the researchers to identify not only point estimates of what increases are required to bring the 287(g) policy to baseline values, but also calculate confidence bands. Implementing the 287(g) policy with no other system adjustments has a detrimental impact on performance in terms of fugitives and non-criminal removals.

Keywords: sensitivity analysis; system of systems; system dynamics; 287(g) programme; Secure Border Initiative; SBI; expert judgment; uncertainty; simulation; modelling; USA; United States; Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act; variability; random sampling; fugitives; non-criminal removals; illegal immigrants.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSSE.2013.053487

International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, 2013 Vol.4 No.1, pp.1 - 22

Received: 07 Sep 2012
Accepted: 09 Sep 2012
Published online: 28 Apr 2014 *

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