Title: Intergenerational effects of mobile telecommunications service diffusion in Sweden

Authors: Mohammad Tsani Annafari; Sven Lindmark; Erik Bohlin

Addresses: Department of Technology Management and Economics, Chalmers University of Technology, Vera Sandbergs Alle 8, Göteborg SE 412 96, Sweden ' iMinds-SMIT, Studies on Media, Information, and Telecommunication Vrije, Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 9 – 2nd floor, 1050 Brussels, Belgium ' Department of Technology Management and Economics, Chalmers University of Technology, Vera Sandbergs Alle 8, Göteborg SE 412 96, Sweden

Abstract: This paper addresses the intergenerational effects of mobile telephone service diffusion in Sweden. Using the Norton-Bass model and the Islam-Meade model, it plots annual mobile service penetration rate data from 1956 to 2010 to explain the pattern of mobile telephone service diffusion. The results show that only the Norton-Bass model could achieve convergence status in the programme iteration. The results also suggest that the diffusion process is affected more by external factors, such as word of mouth, than by the inherent innovativeness of users. Each type of technology is also found to have different market potential, with newer technology having greater market potential than older technology. The study also recognises that the intergenerational process of mobile telephone service diffusion is comparable to the evolutionary process of technology in the sense that it shows two main evolutionary features, i.e., the emergence of technology variation across generations and the selection process from earlier generations of technology to the new one.

Keywords: intergenerational effect; mobile service diffusion; Norton-Bass model; path dependence; evolutionary process; mobile communications; Sweden; mobile phones; cell phones; word of mouth; WoM; market potential; technology variation; technology generations.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMNE.2012.051889

International Journal of Management and Network Economics, 2012 Vol.2 No.4, pp.357 - 373

Available online: 01 Feb 2013

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