Title: An uncertainty assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems and infrastructure sectors with natural disasters analysis

Authors: Wenping Xu; Liu Hong; Ligang He; Xueguang Chen

Addresses: Department of Control Science and Engineering, Institute of System Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, HB, China; Information Engineering Department, Wuhan University of Technology Huaxia College, Wuhan, Hubei 430223, HB, China. ' Department of Control Science and Engineering, Institute of System Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, HB, China. ' Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK. ' Department of Control Science and Engineering, Institute of System Engineering, Huazhong Univeristy of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, HB, China

Abstract: In this paper, an uncertainty assessment analysis extension is proposed for the inoperability input-output model (IIM), which is a methodology for assessing the propagated consequences of initial disruptions to a set of sectors. The IIM has been developed to help understand infrastructure interdependencies on deliberate external attacks or unfortunate natural disasters. Since the final demand perturbation may be affected by the psychological impact on consumers. In this paper, the uncertainty demand-driven IIM is extended to allow final demand perturbations in the form of lognormal probability distributions. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to demonstrate the uncertainty analysis methodology in detail through a four-sector economy system, and the results show that the value of interdependency analysis in the risk assessment process as an integral part of interdependent infrastructure.

Keywords: interdependent infrastructures; inoperability input-output model; IIM; uncertainty analysis; lognormal probability distributions; Monte Carlo simulation; risk assessment; external attacks; natural disasters; psychological impact; sector disruption; critical infrastructures.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSSE.2012.046557

International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, 2012 Vol.3 No.1, pp.60 - 75

Received: 13 Jan 2012
Accepted: 22 Jan 2012
Published online: 16 Aug 2014 *

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