Title: Environmental modelling for blue collars

Authors: Dan V. Vamanu; Adrian V. Gheorghe; Valentin T. Acasandrei; Bogdan I. Vamanu

Addresses: ‘Horia Hulubei’ National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, 30 Reactorului Street, 077125, Bucharest – Magurele, Romania. ' Old Dominion University, 241 Kaufman Hall, Norfolk, VA 23529, USA; Beijing Normal University, No.19, Xin Jie Kou Wai St., Haidian District, Beijing 100875, China. ' ‘Horia Hulubei’ National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, 30 Reactorului Street, 077125, Bucharest – Magurele, Romania. ' ‘Horia Hulubei’ National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, 30 Reactorului Street, 077125, Bucharest – Magurele, Romania

Abstract: Model complexity and the ‘breakpoint of diminishing returns’; ‘physical’ vs. ‘conceptual’ modelling; the relevance and limits of the heuristic solutions; screening vs. analytical modelling; perceptions of uncertainties, calibration and sensitivity analysis; and the ‘ethics in modelling’ – are only a few issues outstanding in the volatile philosophy of the environmental modelling. Glossing on these, the paper attempts to share a few views on possible manners to serve the growing appetite of emergency managers for ‘simple’ tools of first recourse in crises while also tempering their ‘complexity aversion’, in an environment of, otherwise, a booming complexity.

Keywords: environmental risk; environmental modelling; model complexity; practicality; tradeoffs; system analysis; software development; emergency management; crisis management; disaster management; ethics; conceptual modelling; screening; analytical modelling; uncertainty; calibration; sensitivity analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2011.045482

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2011 Vol.46 No.3/4, pp.246 - 266

Available online: 13 Feb 2012 *

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