Article: Endogenous learning in world post-Kyoto scenarios: application of the POLES model under adaptive expectations Journal: International Journal of Global Energy Issues (IJGEI) 2000 Vol.14 No.1/2/3/4 pp.222 - 248 Abstract: This paper describes the endogenous technical change module that has been incorporated in POLES and the main quantitative results of the new version of the model and corresponding exercises. Section 2 presents the methodology that has been used in order to assess the returns to R&D for the main power generation technologies identified in the model. R&D budget allocation is then analysed for the base case in Section 3, which also illustrates the differences in the behaviour, respectively of the least and most risk-averse agents. Section 4, analyses in detail the changes in budget allocation that are induced by the introduction of CO<SUB align="right">2</SUB> emission constraints to 2030, as well as their impacts on marginal and total abatement costs for the main world regions. As a last step, the consequences of changes in public R&D are examined in Section 5. This exercise shows that the performance and diffusion of the technologies benefiting from the shift in public R&D are largely improved, in spite of noticeable ||crowding out|| effects - of private research by public research - for these technologies. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Endogenous learning in world post-Kyoto scenarios: application of the POLES model under adaptive expectations

Authors: Nikolaos Kouvaritakis, Antonio Soria, Stephane Isoard, Claude Thonet

Addresses: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, JRC-IPTS, Edificio World Trade Center, Isla de Ia Cartuja s/n, E-41092, Sevilla, Spain. ' Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, JRC-IPTS, Edificio World Trade Center, Isla de Ia Cartuja s/n, E-41092, Sevilla, Spain. ' Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, JRC-IPTS, Edificio World Trade Center, Isla de Ia Cartuja s/n, E-41092, Sevilla, Spain ' European Commission, DG XII - Research, 75 rue Montoyer, 1049 Bruxelles, Belgique

Abstract: This paper describes the endogenous technical change module that has been incorporated in POLES and the main quantitative results of the new version of the model and corresponding exercises. Section 2 presents the methodology that has been used in order to assess the returns to R&D for the main power generation technologies identified in the model. R&D budget allocation is then analysed for the base case in Section 3, which also illustrates the differences in the behaviour, respectively of the least and most risk-averse agents. Section 4, analyses in detail the changes in budget allocation that are induced by the introduction of CO₂ emission constraints to 2030, as well as their impacts on marginal and total abatement costs for the main world regions. As a last step, the consequences of changes in public R&D are examined in Section 5. This exercise shows that the performance and diffusion of the technologies benefiting from the shift in public R&D are largely improved, in spite of noticeable ||crowding out|| effects - of private research by public research - for these technologies.

Keywords: endogenous technical change; learning by doing; learning curve; R&D investment; rate of return of R&D; portfolio analysis; CO₂ constraints.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2000.004419

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2000 Vol.14 No.1/2/3/4, pp.222 - 248

Published online: 10 May 2004 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article

Title: Endogenous learning in world post-Kyoto scenarios: application of the POLES model under adaptive expectations

Keep up-to-date