Title: World post-Kyoto scenarios: benefits from accelerated technology progress

Authors: Nikolaos Kouvaritakis, Patrick Criqui, Claude Thonet

Addresses: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, JRC-IPTS, Edificio World Trade Center, Isla de la Cartuja s/n, E-41092, Sevilla, Spain. ' Institut d'Economie et de Politique de l'Energie, BP47, 38040 Grenoble CEDEX 09, France. ' European Commission, DG XII - Research, 75 rue Montoyer, 1049 Bruxelles, Belgique

Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of the potential benefits from technological change in post Kyoto CO₂ emission reduction scenarios. In order to assess these benefits, it is necessary in Section 2 to define CO₂ emission entitlements by world region, in a way that allows both for a significant global reduction from the reference in 2030 and for an acceptable burden sharing among world regions. The economic consequences of this entitlement scenario are explored in detail in Section 3, under the hypotheses of on-going trends for technology dynamics and of full world trading for emission permits. Section 4 then introduces the ||Technology Stories||, corresponding to hypotheses of breakthroughs in the performances and costs of six distinct power generation technology clusters. The Technology Stories and their impacts on CO₂ marginal and total abatement costs are then studied in detail, both at world level and in a regional perspective. One key result of this paper is a quantitative assessment of the significant reductions in the compliance costs that may be expected from improvements in low-carbon generation technologies.

Keywords: CO₂ constraints and entitlements to 2030; costs of meeting CO₂ targets; value of technological progress; technological breakthroughs; power generation technologies.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2000.004418

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2000 Vol.14 No.1/2/3/4, pp.184 - 203

Published online: 10 May 2004 *

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