Title: The increasing role of long-term forecasting of natural factors in energy system management

Authors: T. Berejnykh, N. Abasov

Addresses: Energy Systems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, 130, Lermontov Street, Irkutsk 664033, Russia. ' Energy Systems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, 130, Lermontov Street, Irkutsk 664033, Russia

Abstract: The paper uses an example from East Siberia to deal with the impact of natural factors on the operation of energy systems (hydraulic and heat power engineering), the methodology and methods of their forecasting, experience of operation of the information-forecasting system and risks to and stability of energy systems during severe natural disturbances (low-water periods on reservoirs, cold winters).

Keywords: long-term forecasting; natural factors; approximative learning methods; stability; energy systems.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2003.004408

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2003 Vol.20 No.4, pp.353 - 363

Published online: 10 May 2004 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article